Yesterday was Cow-Calfenomics in Olds, AB, where producers learned about the use of price risk management tools, agricultural credit, and the value of a mentor in the beef industry.

Ann Wasko, Market Analyst/Consultant with Cattle Trends Inc., gave a presentation titled, "Cattle Market Outlook and Situation."

Wasko says, prices were better than expected for 2017.

"Not just here in Alberta, but even across North America, certainly saw better prices than many of us were expecting, and that meant profitability in almost all of the sectors, from cow-calf right on through feedlot, packer, and even to the retail and food service industry. We had kind of a different scenario where everyone was making some money in 2017, and that doesn't always happen."

What many believe drove some of the strength in the U.S. market in the May, June time frame was Walmart, Wasko says.

"Walmart U.S.A. came out with a high end beef, so in the U.S. that's choice, and an Angus program. So, it kind of drove the demand to a very high end product, and here in Canada, it was also matched by Walmart Canada going to a AAA Angus program as well. And anytime you see a big significant shift, it can have an impact on price, and in this case, it was a positive."

She says, it was an interesting scenario where a typical discount grocer went after a high end product.

Also, U.S. beef producers are restocking after recovering from droughts in the deep South.

From 2014 to 2018, the U.S. will have added three million head of beef cattle to the national herd.

Wasko says, that means a lot more beef coming at us, with record beef production expected in the U.S. in 2018.

"In 2017, we can look back in the rear-view mirror, and say we handled it great. Demand was good, everyone was making some money, and we moved through the system. Exports were strong. Now, and my message to the participants in the room, was 2018 we're going to have to do that again in an even bigger fashion."

Wasko says, for the 2018 supply story, we're going to see more cattle.

"There's already been more cattle placed on feed here in Western Canada. Part of it's by fewer feeder cattle going South (the the U.S.). And also what we've seen this fall, is more feeder cattle imports coming in from the U.S., and going on feed in southern Alberta, and southern Saskatchewan."

As far as demand in the 2018 cattle market, Wasko says there is still a lot of grey areas.

"Demand (in 2017) was great. Domestic demand was good in the U.S. and Canada, export demand has been good for both countries, we need to do that again. Is there enough money? Are the U.S. and Canadian consumers feeling good enough about their pocket book? Does demand stay strong?"

She say, there is still lots of uncertainly around NAFTA and the TPP, which will all have an important role in the business as far as where beef, pork, and poultry are going to end up in the markets.

 

Send your news tips, story ideas and comments to jgiles@goldenwestradio.com